A week's market review of the hottest internationa

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A week's market review of the international oil market (August 2-august 10)

although the greater than expected growth of U.S. GDP in the second quarter boosted market confidence, the U.S. non-agricultural employment rate fell, the growth of the service industry slowed down, and signs of U.S. economic slowdown led to the decline of U.S. benchmark crude oil futures by 8% from $78 a barrel last week, and the OPEC package oil price fell below $70 a barrel. The failure of U.S. refineries briefly rekindled concerns about summer supply, but the decline in U.S. gasoline demand offset the unexpected sharp decline in crude oil and gasoline

the involvement of a large number of speculative funds has recently set a new record for the crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, investors have new buying intervention and short covering, increased long contracts and reduced short contracts, making the net long again hit a record high. The substantial increase in positions means that there is an increase in new buying. Data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission on Friday showed that as of the week of July 31, the net long positions held by speculative funds in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased to 127491 from 108782 in the previous week

however, a US government report showed that US labor costs were higher than expected in the second quarter. The crisis of subprime mortgages and the decline in the growth rate of non farm labor have increased market concerns about the slowdown of the U.S. economy. The United States is the largest oil consumer in the world, and its economic development has a decisive impact on international oil prices. Balakat, senior vice president of Macquarie futures, believes that the employment number in July announced on Friday morning is the lowest since February, and people have insufficient confidence in the prospects of the U.S. economy

the North Atlantic hurricane season, which has begun to enter an active period, may also exert upward pressure on oil prices in August. In 2005, 28 hurricanes, including Katrina and Rita, attacked oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and some of the impacts have not even been completely eliminated. Colorado State University on the 3rd lowered its forecast for the number of hurricanes this year, from the previous forecast of 9 to 8. During the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, hurricanes may disrupt refinery production in the Gulf of Mexico and affect tanker transportation

U.S. energy secretary Bodman said that affected by the high crude oil price, the U.S. economy is facing the risk of falling into a "danger zone". OPEC and non OPEC countries should increase crude oil production as soon as possible to prevent supply shortages in the market. In October last year, the production volume of 10 OPEC members with quotas was 27.5 million barrels per day. Since then, OPEC announced a total production reduction of 1.7 million barrels per day in two stages to maintain the oil price at $60 per barrel. So far, OPEC crude oil production has decreased by about 1million barrels per day compared with last October. On September 11 this year, the oil ministers of OPEC member states will hold a meeting in Vienna to discuss the next stage of oil production. However, OPEC officials said that OPEC would not increase production before the September meeting

since July, the closing price of benchmark crude oil futures in Europe and the United States has been above $70 a barrel every day. In fact, there was no major change in the fundamentals of the world oil market in July. The appearance in contact with the sample was made of sticky soft rubber. In addition to the tens of thousands of barrels of crude oil production per day affected by the pipeline damage in the North Sea oil field in the natural period, Angola's oil exports were suspended for a day due to power failure. An important turning point at the end of July was that the WTI price recovered above the Brent crude oil price, re establishing the status of the world's benchmark crude oil. At present, the supply and demand of the world oil market are basically balanced, and the international oil price soared due to the military conflict in the Middle East last July., In August last year, BP stopped production due to the failure of its oil field transportation pipeline in Alaska, but after these factors disappeared, since late August last year, the international oil price has continued to plummet from an all-time high to a price close to $50 a barrel in January this year. If there is no oil supply interruption in August this year, and if there is no damage to oil facilities caused by strong hurricanes, the international oil price should fall back from the current historical high price

crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States decreased while distillate inventories increased. The U.S. energy information administration believes that as of the week of August 3, the total commercial oil inventory in the United States fell by 300000 barrels, which is in the first half of the annual average level and still higher than 1billion barrels. Compared with the data of the same period in history, the crude oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels compared with the previous week, but it was much higher than the upper end of the average range of the same period over the years, 2.8% higher than the same period last year; Gasoline inventory fell by 1.7 million barrels, and the inventory is still lower than the average range of the same period over the years. The export growth is stable and progressive, 3.4% lower than that of the same period last year. Distillate oil inventory increased by 1million barrels, and the inventory was in the middle of the average range over the years, 8.4% lower than the same period last year

in terms of demand, the average demand for petroleum products on the fourth Sunday was 21.001 million barrels, 1.8% higher than the same period last year; Among them, the demand for gasoline was 0.8% higher, and the demand for distillate oil was 4.2% higher than that of the same period last year; Among the weekly demand, the daily demand for gasoline in the United States was 9.575 million barrels, 87000 barrels lower than the previous week; Distillate oil will save a lot of raw materials per day, with an average demand of 4.11 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week

recent international oil market forecast: due to the recent rise in oil prices, the US energy information administration adjusted the average price forecast of West Texas Intermediate base crude oil in the third quarter upward by US $4.54, and also raised the forecast value of the fourth quarter by US $3.67 on the basis of the July report. The US energy information administration believes that the low level of OPEC's surplus capacity (mainly composed of heavy crude oil) is still the key to the continued shortage of oil market. It is expected that the growth of world market demand for OPEC oil will completely offset the expected growth of some OPEC member countries. OPEC's idle capacity may remain at a low level in 2008, and the oil market is still vulnerable to unexpected supply disruptions

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